It’s your luck, not effort, that determines success

We’re constantly bombarded with positive moral messages from parents, schools, society, and the government. From our first day in school, we’re told that hard work is the key to success and a comfortable future. But let’s be honest: this is not just advice; it’s propaganda. In this post, I would be bold enough to debunk this belief head-on. Let’s explore why pushing the idea of diligence is actually pushing modern slavery.

Before we dive into any “philosophical” debate, let’s consider some stark realities. Measured by annual work hours, Chinese workers are twice as diligent as Italians. Yet, the median annual income in China is a paltry $5,500, compared to $25,000 in Italy. If hard work truly translated to wealth, Chinese incomes should be closer to $50,000, akin to those in Norway and Switzerland. This glaring discrepancy exposes the myth of hard work as the sole path to prosperity.

(Here, don’t believe in any internet information telling you that “the average monthly salary in China is more than $2,000. This kind of information is either propaganda from websites hired by the Chinese government, or it only reflects a few high-profile companies in certain cities like Shanghai. Also, there is a considerable wealth gap between the north and south in Italy)

If the macroeconomic concepts appear too abstract, let’s examine the stark disparity in wealth distribution across different careers. Despite the vocal demands from governments and businesses for more graduates in science and engineering, Nobel Prize laureates earn a fraction of what Oscar winners make. Postdoctoral researchers in physics earn less than half of the average salary of entry-level employees on Wall Street. In the UK, a 40-year-old senior engineer often earns less than a 25-year-old accountant. These individuals work diligently, yet their incomes are vastly different. Moreover, the workloads in science and engineering are often more demanding than those in entertainment and general business. Ironically, society tends to steer hardworking and smart kids towards science and technology, rather than business or entertainment.

A few months ago, I stumbled upon an academic publication by Italian economists exploring the relationship between luck and wealth. Their study, initially designed to validate the Pareto Principle (the 80-20 Rule), unveiled a startling truth: personal effort is largely irrelevant in the pursuit of success. Through 10,000 iterations in a simulated society, the economists found that the wealthiest individuals were invariably the luckiest, benefiting from a series of positive events. Conversely, the poorest were consistently the most unlucky, suffering from adverse circumstances. IQ and effort turned out to be insignificant factors in this simulation, highlighting the overpowering role of luck in determining financial success.

While we should acknowledge the limitations of scientific research, especially those based on computer simulations, the conclusions about the 80-20 Rule are strikingly evident in reality. Consider Elon Musk: if he had been born in North Korea, his rebellious nature could have landed him in a concentration camp, assuming North Korean society failed to change him.

Likewise, most students at elite institutions like the University of Cambridge and Harvard are either alumni of prestigious high schools or come from specific minority communities that afford them admission privileges due to their ethnicity or sexuality. If these elites hadn’t been born into privileged families or with advantageous ethnic backgrounds, their chances of being admitted to these top universities would be highly questionable. They do not study harder than their peers who were born in ordinary families and hence educated at public schools!

Unfortunately, elitism doesn’t end with education; it continues into the professional world. Graduates in humanities, business management, social sciences, and arts often find themselves in high-value positions, despite these majors requiring less effort and time than STEM degrees. Ironically, despite being touted as “highly demanded,” STEM diplomas don’t offer more career opportunities than liberal arts degrees. In large corporations, even though their core competencies lie in products and technologies, engineers and scientists in R&D are subordinated to HR and marketing departments run by elite alumni with liberal arts and business degrees. To grasp this harsh reality, just visit the leadership section on the website of any renowned company.

Moreover, don’t forget that the political and business leaders, who encourage the next generation to become engineers and scientists and propagandise the charms of science and technology, did not study science or engineering at university. And I am sure that they will not allow their children to study STEM at university. I am also quite certain that the “engineers” designing and building pyramids in Ancient Egypt are called slaves today.

Consequently, we should be aware that those who promote “diligence” and “hard work” are elites who want exploit more slaves. Period.

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